Will 2013 See Another Post-Labor Day Boom?

With Labor Day behind us, the deal community is preparing for transition out of the summer slowdown. In both 2011 and 2012, the Axial network saw a real Post-Labor Day Boom in deal activity. After quiet summers, deal makers returned to have a productive and profitable fall deal season.

In 2011, activity picked up almost immediately after Labor Day, with the first week of September seeing 20% more deals than the week prior. The trend only continued, with deal flow reaching nearly 3x by the end of October.

The same trend appeared in 2012. Although August was not quite as slow in 2012, thanks to the anticipated tax hikes at the end of the year, deal flow still trended upward after Labor Day. The first week of September was sluggish, but deal flow picked up 36% the following week. Activity continued to surge, with a particularly active week in the first week of October.

If the Post-Labor Day Boom holds true in 2013, we should begin to see increased activity in the next few days and weeks. In 2011 and 2012, the difference between the pre-Labor Day low and October’s peak deal flow was nearly 3x. If the same trend appears this year, we could see 300 deals per week sometime before the first of November.

However, deal flow has been anything but predictable this year. Although the underwhelming number of opportunities was expected in the early part of the year, those forecasting increased  activity in Q2 were left unfulfilled. As it turns out, the summer slowdown of 2013 was relatively slower than 2011 and 2012. Now eyes are turning to 2H. Will the backlog of deals come to market during through the Post-Labor Day Boom? Or will 2013 be anomalously slow, breaking with the trends of the last two years?